It’s that time again. We’re all doing it, making predictions, hoping our favorites win. In previous years, I put my predictions out there, just to see how many I get right. This year, however, in four major categories (Best Musical, Best Revival of a Musical, Best Leading Actor in a Musical and Best Leading Actress in a Musical) I’m basing my predictions off of a historical pattern one of my interns and I discovered.
In the past 10 years, the leading actress from a new musical has not won in the same year that her musical did. The last Best Leading Actress to win in the same year as her musical was Marissa Jaret Winokur and Hairspray. Most women who win are from revivals or shows that didn’t win. Whereas Best Leading Actor in a Musical is split pretty much 50/50. Based off of this, my predictions will be circumstantial for those four categories.
Disclaimer: This is not definitive, it is one person’s opinions. Please feel free to comment below with YOUR opinions. You know I love seeing all sides of our community
Who I Think Should Win: Casa Valentina. Beautiful acting mixed with a controversial (and historically based) plot line… I mean, c’mon.
Who I Think Will Win: All the Way. It did win the Drama Desk Award and is a favorite amongst an older crowd.
Who I Think Should Win: Well considering Big Fish, Rocky, and If/Then weren’t even nominated, it makes my pattern prediction easier to make. I think that it should be Beautiful. This is a smart and daring new show with an amazing cast and score. It is fun and entertaining but moving all at once.
Who I Think Will Win: If Jessie Mueller wins for Best Leading Actress, based on history, Beautiful will not win, but if Jessie does not win, I think Beautiful has a good chance! If Jessie wins, I think it’ll be A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder which seems to be the popular vote this season and has a fair chance of winning.
Best Book of a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Douglas McGrath for Beautiful. Again, I think If/Then should’ve been nominated here too, but since it’s not, I think that Beautiful is a strong contender. The story spans decades and with that comes a change in speech that was executed strongly.
Who I Think Will Win: A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder. This seems to be the popular show of the season and I think it’ll take a majority.
Best Original Score:
Who I Think Should Win: Three words. KITT. AND. YORKEY. If/Then has one of the most heart wrenching and beautiful scores I’ve heard from a new musical in a long time. It is so smart and moving, I can’t stop singing it.
Who I Think Will Win: This is a tough category this year. JRB is a crowd favorite and, I mean, hello… Aladdin’s Disney dream team. I still think that Kitt and Yorkey could take it, but I think it could also go to JRB.
Best Revival of a Play:
Who I Think Should Win: Another tough category. All shows are brilliant but I loooooved The Glass Menagerie. With a brilliant cast and beautiful direction, it was a fresh take on a classic play and it hasn’t won anything before- time to give it the glory.
Who I Think Will Win: It honestly could go any which way. Raisin in the Sun has a good shot, because, well, Denzel. But Twelfth Night was a crowd favorite that was really good. Plus, I’ve heard nothing but good about The Cripple of Inishmaan.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Hedwig and the Angry Inch. NPH in a rock musical. I mean, duh.
Who I Think Will Win: If Hedwig doesn’t take it, I will be completely shocked.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:
Who I Think Should Win: Chris O’Dowd. Chris O’Dowd. Chris O’Dowd. The end.
Who I Think Will Win: It’s definitely between Chris O’Dowd and Brian Cranston. I think Chris could take it though, he’s just enough under the radar. Brian was amazing but he’ll be like the Tom Hanks of this year. A nomination was enough.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:
Who I Think Should Win: I personally loved Cherry Jones in The Glass Menagerie but I mean, Audra. Audra is Billy Holiday. She should get it.
Who I Think Will Win: Duh. Audra.
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Andy Karl has really proven himself this season. We all knew he had tons of talent, but Rocky gave him a chance to show it off. He’s worked so hard to get where he is and in my opinion, it’s time to reward him for it.
Who I Think Will Win: Everyone loves Neil Patrick Harris. He is a favorite among anyone involved in the Tonys and it has been said that he should win a Tony just for hosting the Tonys, soooooo…..
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: I think we all know who I’m going to say. I’m biased. I admit it. But truly, Idina blew me away with her performance. Should she totally take it.
Who I Think Will Win: Though the category is full of “Broadway All-Stars”, I think Jessie Mueller has got this. She’s the most impressive underdog of the season. Which, based on history, means that Beautiful will not win.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play:
Who I Think Should Win: Mark Rylance. I mean, did you see Twelfth Night?
Who I Think Will Win: See above ^^
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Just to mix it up a bit, I’m going to say James Monroe Iglehart. His Genie carried the show and was completely unexpected. He took a popular Disney character and made him his own. Loved him.
Who I Think Will Win: Honestly, I think James could take it! I don’t think Aladdin will get much more, but his performance was very impressive.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Anika Larsen gave a great performance in Beautiful. I think, out of the ladies nominated, she has the most substance and executes it with the most grace.
Who I Think Will Win: When it comes down to it, it’s between Lena Hall and Anika. I think Anika has it though. Lena has the bigger challenge but Anika pulls off her role better.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play:
Who I Think Should Win: For me, it’s between Celia Keenan-Bolger and Mare Winningham. Celia gave a truly vulnerable and heart wrenching performance, plus I really want The Glass Menagerie to be recognized with a win or two. Mare also had a great performance in Casa Valentina, a show that is male heavy, she was an honest and graceful light.
Who I Think Will Win: I really think Celia could take it. She is known as an actress that always deserves an award but doesn’t win. I think she could win this year. This may have been the role that gets it for her.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Well, I would love to say Alex Timbers, but we won’t get into that… I think that Darko Tresnjak has given something pretty fantastic. He should get it.
Who I Think Will Win: It’ll be either Darko or Michael Mayer for Hedwig. Both are crowd favorites and they both have brought something creative and smart.
Who I Think Should Win: Rocky. I actually feel very strongly about this category. Fight choreography is extremely difficult because it’s hard to make it look realistic, yet have a flow that can be put to music or enhance a scene. Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine have created beautiful choreography that is believable and entertaining. Broadway has never seen anything like it.
Who I Think Will Win: From what I’m hearing, After Midnight seems to be the crowd favorite. It has the classic Broadway dance numbers and a touch of the jazz flavoring that After Midnight is all about.
Who I Think Should Win: Jason Robert Brown, because it’s him.
Who I Think Will Win: JRB. Especially if he wins Best Score.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
Who I Think Should Win: Rocky. Hands freaking down.
Who I Think Will Win: If Rocky doesn’t win this, I give up.
I know this isn’t all of them, and it’s not that the others aren’t important, it’s just that my opinions on them aren’t as strong. So…what do you think?